Nfl Spread Betting Explained

NFL Point Spread Betting Explained Each fall and winter, NFL football fans love nothing more than checking out their favourite teams and watching highlight-reel touchdowns, interceptions and more take place. At the same time, the entertainment and excitement levels are raised when putting wagers on games you're watching. Point Spreads Explained The point spread is probably the most common bet when you think of wagering on a single sporting event. That is because it's designed to bring the two teams to an even playing field through the use of a handicap installed by oddsmakers.

1. Football Spread Betting Explained
2. Explain Point Spread In Football
3. Nfl Spread Betting Explained Predictions

Who do you like to cover? What’s the spread on the game? These two questions are asked often in sports betting circles.

When you hear them, that means the conversation has turned to the point spread for an upcoming contest. The point spread refers to the line that has been placed on a game by oddsmakers.

Most commonly used in basketball and football betting, it can help to think of the point spread as the estimated margin of victory. For bettors who place a wager on the spread, this number needs to be factored into their handicapping.

At first glance, point spreads can seem confusing and it may look like there’s no rhyme or reason to the numbers. That’s not the case on either front.

We’ll explain everything you need to know about point spread betting right here. Let’s begin by taking a look at the best places you can place your bets.

What is a Point Spread?

A point spread is a number that bookmakers will place on a game. Handicappers then need to account for the spread when they are breaking down games.

Point spreads are most commonly used in basketball and football, but there are equivalents used for the other major North American sports. In the NHL, it’s referred to as a puck or goal line. For MLB, it’s known as a run line.

In both cases, the standard number used is 1.5. When it comes to basketball or football, there’s no set value for the point spread. It can range from as small as 0.5 points all the way up into double digits.

One way to look at point spreads is as the presumed gap in strength between the two teams. Let’s use a random NFL point spread as an example.

• New York Giants +3.5
• Dallas Cowboys -3.5

In this situation, the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites. Bettors need to decide if the Cowboys are in fact 3.5 points better than the Giants for this contest, and if they will be able to win the game by this amount.

Naturally, there will be plenty of different perspectives on how the contest will play out. There will be bettors who side with the Cowboys minus the points, and those who like the Giants plus the points.

For Cowboys bettors to be correct, the team would need to win by greater than 3.5 points, such as 24-20. On the Giants side, they need to keep it closer than 3.5 points, as in 21-20.

The side that successfully exceeds the margin is viewed as having ‘covered’ the spread. You’ll come across the term ‘cover’ a lot in your research. It effectively means which side will be the winner from a betting perspective when the spread is factored in.

There will also be odds attached to point spreads. We’ll cover that in more detail in a bit.

How to Bet the Spread?

Since the point spread is most commonly used in basketball and football, we’ll be focusing on those two sports for the remainder of the article. In both sports, the point spread is used on both the Pro and College side.

Let’s walk through some examples for all of the major point spread sports, starting with the NBA. Here’s the line and spread for a fictitious game.

• Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110)
• Toronto Raptors -1.5 (-110)

The Raptors are favored by 1.5 points, indicating a potentially tight game. After doing your research, you decide you like Toronto to win by more than 1.5 points.

As it turns out, the Bucks wind up winning a close one by a score of 100-98. Not only did the Raptors fail to cover the spread, but they lost the game, so your ticket is a loser. If Toronto had come out on top by the same margin, you would have had a winner.

Next, let’s take a look at the spread and betting odds for a random College Basketball game.

• Purdue +.4.5 (-110)
• Michigan State -4.5 (-110)

The Spartans are 4.5 point favorites for this tilt, but you like the way the Boilermakers are playing and think they can keep it close. When the final whistle blows, Michigan State hangs on for a 72-69 win.

The Spartans have won the game, but the margin of victory was lower than the spread. Those who bet on Michigan State minus the points have losing tickets, but bettors on Purdue plus the points such as yourself are winners.

The point spread works the same way when betting on College Football and the NFL. Oddsmakers will designate a favorite and an underdog, and then they’ll add a point spread into the mix.

• Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-110)
• New England Patriots -6.5 (-110)

The Patriots are pretty big favorites for this one. If you bet on them with the spread attached, they’ll have to win the game by seven or more points. For a bet on the Browns with the spread, the team will at least need to keep the margin to six points or under.

The favored status of New England proves to be prescient, as they go on to win by a score of 27-17. The 10-point margin of victory means that they covered the spread, while Cleveland has failed to do so.

For our final example, let’s move over to College Football for an imaginary inter-conference clash.

• Wisconsin +2.5 (-110)
• Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)

While the Badgers are the underdogs for this contest, the game is expected to be tight. Oddsmakers have placed the spread at less than a field goal as a result. When the final whistle blows, the Aggies escape with a 28-27 win.

Underdog Wisconsin has lost, but they kept it close and covered the spread. Bettors on that side have a winning ticket to cash, while those who wagered on Texas A&M minus the points move on to fight another day.

As with all other sports betting concepts, the more you are exposed to point spreads, the easier they become to understand.

Point Spread Odds and Line Moves

After oddsmakers release the spread and odds for a slate of games, the betting market has a chance to weigh in. That can lead to shifts in both cases depending on market action.

Let’s say a spread for an NFL game is released at 3.5 points. A flurry of public money comes in on one side of the coin. Oddsmakers respond by raising the spread up to 4 points.

So why did the spread tick up? In this case, we can interpret it to mean that a good amount of money came in on the favorite minus the points. To make the game more attractive on the underdog side, the sportsbook has added some more incentive in the form of a half-point.

On the odds front, we may see the same thing. Odds of -110 are pretty standard for point spread bets. If a book takes in more action on one side over the other – but not enough to justify moving the spread – then the odds can shift a little.

For example, a majority of the money coming in the favorite could lead odds on that side to change to -115, while odds on the underdog side are adjusted down to -105. This may influence the direction they go and even out the action for the sportsbook a bit, which is the goal they have when adjusting odds.

Odds and spreads can also move when a piece of news drops that could impact the outcome of the game. A major injury, lineup change, or trade are among the scenarios that could have such an impact.

For point spread betting, it’s always a good idea to check out the opening lines and compare them to where they are when you begin handicapping the game. This can alert you to market sentiment on the game, or potentially a piece of news that you may have missed.

How to Handicap Point Spreads

While handicapping for point spreads may seem complex when you’re first starting out, it really doesn’t have to be. It can be as difficult or easy as you make it, and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with keeping it simple.

First things first, there are resources out there – both free and subscription-based – which provide picks against the spread. Some are good, some are average, and others aren’t so great.

If you’re going this route, a good rule of thumb is to find a few trusted resources – three will do the trick – and compare the picks to help form your own consensus. As always, practice due diligence when selecting sources and don’t just blindly trust the words of one as gospel.

For those who would like to do their own handicapping, it’s helpful to start with a simple process and build it out from that point.

First things first, study the lines and odds for the games on the slate. Recognize what the market is telling you, and examine any shifts from open to present time.

Next, consider the overall strength of the teams involved, as well as how much of a difference homefield or home court advantage may make. Oddsmakers have this factored in on their side, but it’s important for you to consider it as well.

One thing that can be very helpful is finding a set of power rankings that you can trust and use regularly. Power rankings rate the teams in the league from top to bottom and attach a number to each squad which represents their overall strength.

You can then compare these two numbers and account for home advantage. The difference will point you to a reasonable point spread, which you can then compare to the actual spread.

Power rankings can be found on subscription-based sports betting sites, but there are also a number of excellent resources on the interwebs which are completely free.

Afterwards, it’s time to examine the teams on a statistical basis. It’s very easy to get lost down the rabbit hole here, so stick to what really moves the needle when beginning, such as points for and against.

For football, you can also check out yards for and against. In basketball, lean towards things that truly impact the game, such as overall shooting percentage and turnover rates.

Once you have a good handle on examining the basic stats, you can add additional factors to provide a more well-rounded picture.

Last but not least, check out recent form for both sides. Teams go through hot and cold streaks, and current momentum can be a solid guide for what’s to come in the near future.

After you have gone through all of these factors, you can go through your own personal checklist to determine which side is better on all fronts. Taking the time to break down all of these factors should lead you to a choice that you feel comfortable with.

As your experience with handicapping point spreads increases, you may decide to add additional variables to the equation. You can make your own personal system as complex or as simple as you would like.

The choice is completely up to you and what works best for your strategy. As always, the bottom line is what type of process will lead you to positive results more often than not.

The Bottom Line on Point Spreads

Point spreads are most commonly used for betting on basketball or football. Oddsmakers will designate a number for each contest, and bettors will then need to factor that into their handicapping.

Bettors can wager on the favorite minus the points, or the underdog plus the points. If you think of the spread like a potential margin of victory, then that means the favorite needs to win by more than the spread, while the underdog needs to keep the game closer than that.

The standard odds for point spread bets are typically -110, but there will be shifts based on market action or news that develops after lines are released. The spread itself can also shift based on those same factors.

It’s a good idea to track how odds and spreads have moved from the open until the time you are ready to place bets. This can give you a sense of market direction and also help you spot factors you may have missed.

Handicapping point spreads can be confusing at first, but a simple process such as the one outlined in this article can help you get the hang of it quickly. As you move along, you can also personalize the process to better fit your style.

In addition, there are also free and subscription-based resources which provide picks against the spread. If you decide to pursue that path, it’s a good idea to gather multiple sources and attempt to find a consensus.

NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies

How big is the football betting market?

Forget baseball.

America’s favorite pastime is football.

The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.

This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.

Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.

That’s right.

Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.

And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.

According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Why do most NFL betting systems fail?

Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.

Were it not for the juice, things might be different.

The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.

Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —

So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.

The trick is to take things seriously.

Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.

But don’t be overwhelmed.

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.

Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.

Our Betting Methodology and System

The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.

This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.

Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time

Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.

A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.

Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”

While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.

What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.

The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.

From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.

For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.

NFL Betting Systems

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?

NFL Spread Bet

The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.

Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.

Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.

In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.

Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…

Moneyline Bet

Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.

Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.

Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.

What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.

As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.

NFL Totals Bet

NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.

Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.

Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.

NFL Prop Bet

A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Prop bets come in many different forms.

Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.

During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.

NFL Parlay Bet

You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.

In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.

This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.

In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.

In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.

NFL Teaser Bet

A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.

When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.

When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.

Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.

Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.

It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.

The Most Important NFL Betting Stats

Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.

So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?

Well, it might not be what you think.

According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents

In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.

The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.

Seems pretty simple.

The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.

As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.

Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.

Factors for NFL picks?

Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five

What really matters is the team’s offensive line.

Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.

In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.

You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.

With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.

Biggest mistakes with NFL betting

Money Management

The biggest mistake is money management.

If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.

This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.

It’s simple.

Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Shop the Numbers

Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.

No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.

Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.

Don’t say yes to the first line you see.

Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.

What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.

Bet the Underdog at Home

There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home

You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.

Slim underdogs regularly win outright.

Football Spread Betting Explained

Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.

Why?

Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.

There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.

Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:

1. Chasing your bets
2. Getting vindictive
3. Trying to win back losses
4. Go after big wins to recoup losses
5. Overly-promising wagers.

It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.

Explain Point Spread In Football

Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.

There’s no large place for emotion in this game.

When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.

Nfl Spread Betting Explained Predictions

The key to beating them is knowing yours too.